Weather Update: Tuesday – May 14, 2024
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| WDEF-TV News 12 Forecast |
Overnight: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely during the evening, then showers becoming scattered after midnight. Mild. Lows: lower 60’s. Winds: SW 10-15 mph.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Mild. Highs: upper 70’s. Winds: W 10-15 mph, gusts 20 mph.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy. Cool. Lows: upper 50’s. Winds: NW 5-10 mph.
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The next 7 days will be active in terms of periods of rain, with about two, entire 24-hour periods with little to no rain. The action begins today, as a slow moving upper level trough strengthens, while it ambles east from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley through Tuesday evening. Scattered showers will continue to spread north and east from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the mid South during the day. The showers will build northeast into the News12 viewing area during the morning and then make slow progress through the region by late afternoon. There may be a break in the precipitation Monday night, before the main area of deep moisture and atmospheric lifting build into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians on Tuesday, in association with the storm system surface low pressure center and cold front. A few thunderstorms are possible as the cold front moves east across the area Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Computer model forecasts indicate that the area of more widespread convection will be primarily south of our forecast area. At this time, the greater atmospheric instability and stronger lift, for the possibility of severe thunderstorms, appears to impact areas in the vicinity of the I-20 and I-85 corridor and points south of these interstates.
The upper level low pressure system that will be driving our weather today and Tuesday will be moving so slowly that even after the lower-level part of the storm system (surface low pressure center and associated cold front) moves east of the Appalachians, there will still be a chance of a few showers continuing through the daytime hours on Wednesday. Finally, by Thursday, we should be able to enjoy a return to drier air and mostly sunny skies behind the departing early week system. The period of dry weather does not last long as model forecasts indicate the arrival of yet another, slow moving storm system. As with the early week system, this one also appears to move across the WDEF viewing area in two parts, with a main surface frontal system followed by the parent upper level low pressure. In this scenario, showers and thunderstorms will again become likely on Friday followed by a trailing area of showers on Saturday. If all goes well, we may have a dry Sunday, but the medium range models are not all in agreement in this extended period of the forecast.
The moist pattern will keep our low temperatures a few degrees above normal, in the lower and middle 60’s through much of the week. High temperatures will be mainly limited to the 70’s in the mostly overcast, showery weather pattern. Although, it looks like we should be able to enjoy highs in the lower and middle 80’s on Thursday and again on Sunday, with the help of that strengthening, mid-May sunshine!
The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlook for Monday, May 20th through Sunday, May 26th, features above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, which is good news because it may help stave off the possibility of extreme drought conditions; such as we experienced in 2023 during late Summer and Fall.
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National Drought Summary for May 2, 2024
Summary
Moderate to heavy rain amounts fell across parts of the Southeast and Northeast this week, leading to localized improvements to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness in the Southeast, and mostly unchanged conditions in the Northeast, aside from western New York, which missed out on the heavier precipitation and saw minor degradations.
The central third of the contiguous U.S. saw a mix of improvements and degradations, based on where heavier precipitation did or did not fall and where dry and windy conditions continued. Parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, the Michigan Lower Peninsula, southern Missouri and southeast Kansas saw improving conditions after heavier rains fell there. Meanwhile, moderate drought expanded in northwest Missouri and portions of west-central Wisconsin, Minnesota, northwest Iowa, the far southern Michigan Upper Peninsula and far northeast Wisconsin. Much of Texas remained the same, with a few degradations in the southeast corner and several degradations in central and southern Texas where long-term drought conditions are still causing impacts. Recent dryness and warm and windy weather in northwest Oklahoma and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles led to abnormal dryness developing there.
Short-term dryness and high evaporative demand led to large areas of degrading conditions in northeast Wyoming, while west-central Wyoming, north-central Colorado, northeast Utah, western Montana, and the northern Idaho Panhandle all saw areas of improvement due to lower evaporative demand and improving snowpack recently. In Hawaii, an active trade wind pattern continued, leading to some improvements on the windward (northeast) slopes of the Big Island and Kauai, while a small area of moderate drought developed on the leeward (southwest) portion of Kauai. In Puerto Rico, a few improvements were made where recent rainfall has improved streamflows and crop stress, and lessened rainfall deficits and raised reservoir levels.
No changes were made to the Drought Monitor this week in Alaska.
– NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
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